Opinion: Biden and Trump Loom Large over the Midterms
As November Nears, the Race for the House Tightens
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Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said he is “100% certain” Republicans will win control of the Senate in November. Of course, Scott is the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, so you’d expect him to say that.
Unfortunately for Scott’s prognostication efforts, most trends seem to be going against him.
I pointed out what I called the shifting sands of the midterm elections in two columns early last month, well before that narrative began to get traction in national media reports. I then promised a monthly update on the “horse race,” and this is September’s.
The big picture has stayed the same, with the GOP still likely to regain control of the House, and the Democrats retaining control of the Senate. The big difference is that the Democrats’ numbers have kept getting better.
Let’s start with the good news for the Republicans: The gambling sites still strongly favor the GOP to take the House. However, as the PredictIt graphic below shows, the GOP’s odds have been steadily declining from their peak on June 23, the day before the Supreme Court handed down its decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
PredictIt betting odds Sept. 22, 2022, for control of the House after the midterm elections. Courtesy: PredictIt.
Ladbrokes, a British betting company, also similarly gives the GOP about a 75% likelihood of winning control of the House. BetOnline, an offshore gambling company based in Panama, gives the GOP slight better odds, with a 77.8% chance.
Switching from the betting sites to political forecasters who analyze individual House races, Republicans are also ahead, but they have seen their odds fall sharply.
On August 11, FiveThirtyEight gave the GOP a 79% chance of controlling the House. That has dropped to 69%, as you can see in the graphic below.
Courtesy FiveThirtyEight.
The GOP also has to be pleased with the House electoral forecast map from 270toWin, which still paints much of the country red.
Courtesy: 270toWin.
However, even the Fox News Power Rankings indicate that “The House is in play for the first time this cycle as Democrats continue to build momentum.” Republicans remain the favorites, but the rankings now “give Democrats pathways to retain control.”
Courtesy: Fox News Channel.
The shift is evident in the generic congressional ballot. According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, after 10 months of holding an advantage that reached as high as 4.8 percentage points on April 28, 2022, the GOP has lost its lead. The RCP average shows that Democrats are now ahead by 1.1 percentage points.
The fluctuations in the generic congressional ballot over the last few months, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Courtesy: RealClearPolitics.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls gives Democrats a slightly larger lead on the generic congressional ballot.
The fluctuations in the generic congressional ballot from July 1 to Sept. 22, 2022, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls. Courtesy: FiveThirtyEight.
To be clear, the worsening performance on the generic ballot does not mean that the GOP will fail to take control of the House. The electoral map, as shown above, continues to favor Republicans in the lower chamber.
The problem for the GOP is that the decline in support is taking its toll in the fight for the Senate.
Even though Republicans had held the advantage earlier this year, by August 11, FiveThirtyEight favored the Democrats to control the upper chamber in 61% of its outcomes. Now, they are favored in 70%, as you can see in the graphic below.
Courtesy FiveThirtyEight.
The betting sites agree, although the odds aren’t quite as favorable. Gamblers on PredictIt had the GOP ahead all year in the race for the Senate, but that also shifted in August and they now more strongly lean toward the Democrats.
PredictIt betting odds on Sept. 22, 2022, for control of the Senate after the midterm elections. Courtesy: PredictIt.
Conclusion
With less than three months to go before the midterms, the most likely scenario continues to be that the GOP will take the House, while the Democrats hold onto the Senate.
Even though the House race is tightening, history does not favor Democrats. The president’s party has lost seats in the House in 17 out of 19 midterm elections since 1945. And the two exceptions took place in unusual years: 1998, after Clinton’s unpopular impeachment; and 2002, when Americans headed to the ballots about a year after 9/11.
One of the most important predictors is a president’s popularity. By that metric, the Democrats are also in trouble. Biden’s approval rating on Sept. 21 stands at 43%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. An improvement over last month, but still more than 10 points underwater. Biden’s approval is even worse on the economy, at only 38.7%, according to the RCP average.
The latter is especially damaging to Democrats. An ABC News/Ipsos survey released on August 7, 2022, found a whopping 69% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse (only 12% think it’s getting better). All of these metrics are well below the average for midterm years, according to Gallup polling.
Also, inflation remains high, and it’s the most important issue for voters. Stock markets have plunged as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates to control the higher prices, pushing up mortgage and credit card rates. Making matters worse, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made discouraging remarks on Wednesday, September 21, saying that “No one knows if this process will lead to a recession or how significant that recession will be.”
All that would seem to presage a bad outcome for Democrats in November. However, this election is unusual because Donald Trump has far higher visibility than past former presidents, and he’s not popular either. In fact, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, his numbers are almost identical to Biden’s. Only 43.1% of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of him, which also puts Trump more than 10 points underwater.
Additionally, Trump’s influence over the GOP has led to a very high number of nominees who are election deniers. That might have helped the candidates succeed with the base in primaries, but nominees whose cult-like devotion to Trump is their main qualification are not likely to play well in general elections outside red states.
And Democrats appear to have closed the “enthusiasm gap.” A Morning Consult poll of registered voters shows Democrats with a lead in enthusiasm for the first time since March.
Courtesy: Morning Consult.
As the saying goes, “all politics is local,” and many variables are at play in individual races. However, the wisdom of that phrase is being challenged by the polarization in national politics. From inflation to abortion and immigration, national issues often take center stage even in local campaigns.
I'll update the forecasts, gambling sites, and the polls in October and then in November, just before the election, because the final stretch before the midterms will most certainly be interesting.
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Cover photo left: U.S. President Joe Biden addresses the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN Headquarters in Manhattan on Sept. 21, 2022. (Tayfun Coskun/Getty Images)
Cover photo right: Former U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a Save America rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania on Sept. 3, 2022. (Kyle Mazza/Getty Images)