Opinion: Trump and Biden Are Giving Moderates Difficult Choices in November
The Shifting Sands of the Midterm Elections
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What is a moderate to do?
When it comes to the midterm elections, that’s an increasingly difficult question to answer, especially for moderate Republicans and independents.
In response to my recent piece titled “Is the GOP Blowing Its Lead in the Midterms?,” a reader posted on my Facebook page about the quandary he faces in the Arizona gubernatorial race. He says he can’t vote for either main-party candidate because one is a “pro open border” Democrat and the other is “a loony Republican.” Those would not have been the words I have chosen, but you get the point, and it’s a valid one.
My prior column on the midterms focused mostly on the “horse race.” Using different metrics, it addressed how the GOP’s big lead in the fight for the House has dwindled, and how the party’s advantage in the Senate battle has evaporated. While Republicans are still comfortably favored to take control of the House, the lead has narrowed even more in the four days since that column was published, according to the betting site PredictIt.
Betting odds on PredictIt for which major party will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Courtesy: PredictIt.
The shift in voter preference is happening for a variety of reasons. Further illustrating the strange political times we live in, the same event can be a positive and a negative.
What’s Hurting Republicans?
First, as polls show, the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion was unpopular with the American people, a point that was hammered home by the lopsided defeat in Kansas of an anti-abortion measure to eliminate the state constitution’s abortion protections. This happened in a solidly red state that Donald Trump easily won in 2020. It follows that moves by Republicans in red states to ban abortion could hurt their electoral chances. Indiana has already passed a broad abortion ban that takes effect next month, and a majority of states are likely to severely restrict the right to an abortion.
Second, Biden has had a series of recent successes. They include the improvement of many economic indicators, especially employment; the killing of the world’s most wanted terrorist; the passage of a bill with climate, health, and tax provisions; signing into law an expansion of health care benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits; signing into law a statute that funds research and manufacturing of semiconductor chips; and signing into law a gun safety statute. Biden also has an ally in the mainstream media and the liberal cable networks, which are doing their best to magnify the achievements. The New York Times trumpeted that “Biden Is on A Roll That Any President Would Relish,” and CNN’s almost giddy anchors touted the legislative successes as Biden’s “big agenda win.”
We’ll see if the new bills provide a boost, but now the Biden-friendly mainstream media and House and Senate Democratic candidates have enough critical mass to sell a message of Biden success, and that may have an impact. Biden himself is preparing to go on the road to capitalize on what the White House sees as a series of wins. However, the bills have a flip side, as I’ll discuss in “What’s Hurting Democrats” below.
Third, Trump’s influence over the GOP’s base has led to the party nominating at least 531 candidates this year for the Senate, the House, governor, attorney general, and secretary of state who have fully denied or raised concerns about the election results. Some of those candidates are likely to lose the independent and establishment Republican votes they will need to succeed in the general election. Polls indicate that Trump favorites Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and J.D. Vance in Ohio are trailing in what would otherwise be winnable Senate races, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls. The same is true in some governors’ races, like Arizona’s.
Worse yet for the GOP because of the message it sends to independents and the increasingly bold never-Trump Republicans is what’s happened to the so-called “Impeachment 10,” the Republican House members who voted for impeachment. Only two of them, Washington’s Dan Newhouse and California’s David Valadao, have won their primaries. Valadao didn’t face a Trump-backed opponent, while Newhouse eked out a victory against one.
Four of the Impeachment 10, Ohio’s Anthony Gonzalez, New York’s John Katko, Illinois’ Adam Kinzinger, and Michigan’s Fred Upton, announced their retirements, sparing themselves from the wrath of MAGA world. Two others, Michigan’s Peter Meijer and Washington State’s Jaime Herrera-Beutler lost to Trump-backed candidates. All six of those incumbents are from districts that aren’t solidly red. These retirements and losses in swing districts could hurt the GOP’s chances.
House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol members Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Vice Chairwoman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) deliver opening remarks during a prime-time hearing in the Cannon House Office Building on July 21, 2022, in Washington, D.C. Cheney and Kinzinger are the two most prominent members of the so-called "Impeachment 10," House Republicans who endangered their political careers by voting for the impeachment of Donald Trump in on February 13, 2022. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
The other two House Republicans who voted for impeachment are from solidly red districts, so their races should not affect control of the House. One, South Carolina’s Tom Rice, was handily beaten by a Trump-backed candidate.
The second, Liz Cheney, is the most symbolic and politically significant, even though the GOP is likely to hold onto the seat. Polls show Cheney is way behind in her primary race (voting is today, Tuesday, August 16) even though she reached the third-highest position in the GOP’s congressional leadership, has strong conservative credentials, and had easily won her three elections to Congress with about two-thirds of the vote. But her principled and courageous decisions to vote to impeach Donald Trump and to participate in the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack have made her persona non grata for the GOP base.
Again, candidates whose cult-like devotion to Trump is their main qualification are not likely to play well in general elections outside the reddest of states.
Fourth, polls indicate that Trump’s legal travails, from the hearings of the U.S. House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack to his apparent illegal possession of classified documents have taken at least a small toll on his popularity with independents, a decisive voting block. Republicans could suffer further if evidence shows Trump acted irresponsibly and endangered national security.
Fifth, as extensively discussed in my earlier column, the GOP has lost its once substantial lead in polls on the generic congressional ballot.
What’s Hurting Democrats?
First, inflation. I could probably make that second, third and fourth, without understating its significance as the most important issue for Americans. A Pew Research survey in May, before the inflation rate peaked, indicated that inflation was the top issue facing the country according to 70% of Americans. No other issue came close. Americans have generally voted with their pocketbooks and I suspect they will do so again in November.
Second, the most expensive of Biden’s recent legislative successes, which Democrats chose to name the “Inflation Reduction Act,” could turn out to be a double-edged sword. The Congressional Budget Office and some Democratic senators have admitted it won’t reduce inflation in short term.
Senator Bernie Sanders, of all people, has also given the right more ammunition by dismissing the legislation as the “so-called” Inflation Reduction Act. “According to the CBO and other economic organizations that study this bill,” he added, “It will, in fact, have a minimal impact on inflation.” The conservative Heritage Foundation has gone much further saying the law would “devastate the economy” pushing up the deficit at first and “spiking inflation for the foreseeable future.” If Sanders is right and inflation worsens, it will be terrible for Democrats.
Additionally, the act beefs up the IRS, providing it with an $80 billion boost. That has opened the door for right-wing pundits and politicians to attack it by dubbing it the “IRS Expansion Act.” The IRS, as one of the least popular federal agencies, is an easy target and one that resonates with average Americans.
Bills in general don’t have much of an effect on presidential job approval unless, as fellow Bulletin writer Kristen Soltis Anderson points out voters “felt the legislation tangibly improved their lives.” Few provisions in recent legislation will have any significant impact on individuals before the November voting. Anderson proves her point in a piece titled "Will This Bill Build Back Biden's Job Approval" using a RealClearPolitics chart of Biden’s favorability. It highlights how other successes had minimal if any impact, indicating that Democrats shouldn’t hold their breath hoping that the new laws will help their electoral chances in November.
RealClearPolitics Biden job approval chart with key events highlighted. Courtesy: RealClearPolitics and Codebook by Kristen Soltis Anderson.
Third, the FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home seems to be firing up the Republican base, possibly increasing turnout in November. The search was clearly legal, but I use “raid” advisedly, despite some sanctimonious preaching from CNN, MSNBC, and The Atlantic that it’s inappropriate. The truth is that the term “raid,” whether it’s hyperbole or not, has been commonly used by mainstream news outlets in the past and present to describe similar FBI actions, as Merriam Webster points out. CNN had no problem using it to describe the seizing of documents from the home of Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort or the arrest of Trump pal Roger Stone. The same is true for the New York Times and the Washington Post, which seem to prefer to use “search” now, when they had no issue using “raid” when it didn’t involve Trump himself. But even they are using “raid” occasionally in this case.
In his most recent column, David Brooks of the New York Times asks “Did the F.B.I. Just Re-elect Donald Trump?” I doubt it, in part because 2024 is far away, but it’s possible the raid will give the GOP momentum in 2022.
Fourth, Biden’s approval rating is at 40.3%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. It’s only 34.3% on the economy. According to an ABC News/Ipsos survey released on August 7, 2022, a whopping 69% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse (only 12% think it’s getting better). All of these metrics are well below the average for midterm years, according to Gallup polling. And we know that since World War II, the party controlling the White House has suffered an average loss of 26 House seats and four Senate seats.
Fifth, the so-called “enthusiasm gap” still favors Republicans, although the difference has narrowed significantly in recent months. Gallup showed a 10-percentage-point gap in favor of Republicans in early July, the second-largest ever for a midterm election, exceeded only by 2010, when President Obama admitted his party had gotten a “shellacking.” The recent ABC/Ipsos poll shows the gap narrowing to just five percentage points.
Courtesy: Gallup.
Conclusion
Although Trump’s support among Republicans has been slipping, his hold on the base is still strong, so he maintains a disproportionate influence over what candidates are nominated by the GOP. The problem for Republicans is that 54.5% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Trump (only 41.5% have a favorable opinion), according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls. Also, about two-thirds of Americans believe Biden was legitimately elected, so nominating election deniers may not be a winning proposition.
However, Biden’s favorability is even further underwater than Trump’s.
With so many factors at play, it’s hard to be definitive in forecasting midterm election results. Still, history and the economy are not working in favor of Democrats, so I’m confident they will lose control of the House, while the Senate will be a close call. I’ll have an update by September 15.
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Cover photo: A billboard that reads “Ditch Liz! Vote for Hageman” is posted on Sunday, August 14, 2022, in Laramie, Wyoming. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is currently running well behind her top challenger, Harriet Hageman, who has been endorsed by former president Donald Trump in Wyoming's Republican primary which will be held on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)