Opinion: Will We See a GOP Blowout in the Midterms?
What the Gamblers (and the Polls) Say
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Predicting who will win any election – much less 435 in the House of Representatives and 36 this year in the Senate – has increasingly become a fool’s errand.
Over the past couple of weeks, you’ve probably seen pundits on TV or in print, telling you over and over that the momentum has shifted and that polls are getting better for the GOP.
They're right, but polls may be not be telling the whole story. In 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated the GOP vote, and they may be undercounting Republicans again. While the extent of so-called “nonresponse” bias from Republicans (especially supporters of former President Trump) is debated, few doubt it exists, even if it’s hard to measure.
Better guidance may come from the political betting sites. They have a superior track record, and they have swung hard toward Republicans. In my September column on the midterms, bettors sharply favored Democrats to solidify their control of the Senate. That has flipped dramatically.
Why Has Momentum Shifted?
While job creation has remained strong, the economic headwinds are more powerful, and record percentages of Americans believe the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction.
Voters have kept telling Democrats that they cared most about economic issues, especially the soaring cost of living. However, instead of focusing on that, President Biden’s closing message on the campaign trail has highlighted that “Democracy is on the ballot.” I have written numerous columns about the 1/6 attack and the threat anti-democratic forces pose, but polls have repeatedly shown that the issue isn’t swaying voters.
Also, abortion, the key issue that seemed to have shifted momentum toward Democrats over the summer, appears to have fizzled in the face of the growing pessimism on the economy and increases in crime.
Nowhere is that more salient than in a sharp shift toward Republicans among White suburban women, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. It found they now favor GOP candidates in congressional races by 15 percentage points, while in August they favored Democrats by 12 points.
Voter enthusiasm also appears to strongly favor Republicans, according to an NPR survey, although an NBC poll shows both parties almost even.
With Election Day only two days away, Democrats can only hope that some of the momentum shift came after early voting began almost two months ago in some states.
Finally, negatives for the GOP, such as the accusations that Herschel Walker paid for abortions, have been offset by struggles for Democrats, including John Fetterman’s problematic performance in a debate.
How Much Has Momentum Shifted?
The final Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot shows the GOP with a 2.5 percentage-point advantage over Democrats. Compare that to Sept. 22, when Democrats had the advantage by 1.1 percentage points.
Courtesy: Real Clear Politics.
Looking at the two chambers of Congress, the Senate has seen the biggest shift. On Sept. 22, FiveThirtyEight favored the Democrats to control the upper chamber in 70% of its outcomes. On Nov. 6, Republicans are favored in 53%, as you can see in the graphic below.
Courtesy: FiveThirtyEight.
Turning to the betting sites, the PredictIt graphic below from Sept. 22 shows how Democrats had the momentum then.
Now, bettors favor Republicans to take control of the Senate by an even larger margin.
PredictIt betting odds on Nov. 6, 2022, for control of the Senate after the midterm elections. Courtesy: PredictIt.
Separately, at this writing, the Election Betting Odds average of political gambling sites gives the GOP a 67.1% chance of gaining control of the Senate.
The conventional wisdom is that control will be determined by four races, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. According to RCP’s average of polls, Republicans are now favored in the first three and trail by one percentage point in Arizona. But now a fifth race seems to be in play, with the Democratic candidate in New Hampshire ahead by less than a percentage point.
And the House?
Turning to the House of Representatives, on Sept. 22, FiveThirtyEight favored Republicans to control the lower chamber in 69% of its outcomes. On November 6, Republicans are favored in 82%, as you can see in the graphic below.
Courtesy: FiveThirtyEight.
On the betting sites, the odds indicate that you’d be throwing away your money if you gamble on the Democrats to retain control.
PredictIt betting odds on Nov. 6, 2022, for control of the House after the midterm elections. Courtesy: PredictIt.
Also, at this writing, the Election Betting Odds average of political gambling sites gives the GOP an 86.8% chance of gaining control of the House.
Conclusion
The economy, Biden’s low approval rating (although it’s not at the depths it reached this spring), the poor historical performance of the president’s party in midterm elections, and voter enthusiasm seem to be creating a strong current against Democratic chances.
In prior columns on the midterms, I was confident that Republicans would take control of the House and thought that Democrats had a good chance of retaining control of the Senate.
Today, I’d bet my house that the GOP will take over in the people’s house. I’d be more conservative in gambling on the Senate, but I would not bet against Republicans.
The White House should prepare for some serious headaches.
Cover photo: From left to right, Pennsylvania Senate candidates John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz and Georgia Senate candidates Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. (Win McNamee, Mark Makela, Anadolu Agency, Bill Clark/Getty Images)
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